DEC 94

Massive Subscription to the popular petitoion Desenchantment is the Order of the Day A British political observer read the peLilion being submitted to the Amircalling for the restoration of the N. ational Assembly. H. is comments werc as follows: “The petition to the Arnir is a step in the right direction. Restoring the National Assembly is essential . But how much backing is there from the mass of citizens? How united is the opposition? How many different interests are there? Can religious and secular groups work together? Is there a Sunni-Shia divide? Has anybody got a manifesto, or policy statement of aims, to put to the peopled is there a charismalic leader who could speak out not just to Bahrain but to the world?” These are serious 4ucsLions. The core queslion being: is the opposition geared-up for the consequences of a political battle or not? Bahrainis have long debated these issues looking back at historical Cents that took place in thc previous decades. The backing of the mass of citizens to the petition being submitted is not questionable. Indeed, tens of thousands have already registcrcd their names calling for the return of parliament. The grass roots are subject lo grave consequcnccs. By signing, they risk Lhcir safety and livelihood. This is true becausc the ruling tribe finds the notion of people dCIllallding rights is unfit with its cu]lurc. Thc lattcr believes that people must bow and thank Lhc tribc that granted them “schools, houses, salaries, high-ways, food, watch and utilities”. Hence, how dare anyone raises a voice claiming some “rights”. Theopposition in Bahrain takes two forms. ()ry,anised movcmcnts and parties are prime targets for the secret police. fin the Scventics, thc two main leftist parties suffered sevcrcly from oppressive crackdown. So did thc main two Islamic partics in the Eighties. Suffice to mention that Bahrain’s pcnal codc (which is not in accordance with the constitution) prcseribcs a minimum uS five years scnlcncc for any member of an organiscd political pare Hence the organiscd groups stay underground and can only speak out publicly outside [he country. Thc other form of oppositions are the groups of inlcllcctuals and religious scholars who function through semi-polilical institutions, like clubs, mosques and other social circles. Thcse groups rcprcsenl the mainstream political tendencies with the country. They can bc classified in terms of Islamic tendcncy (Shia and Sunni) and National tcndcncy (Nationalists and Icflisls). Thc petition being submilLcd and thc onc Lhat was submitted in November 1992 wcrc signcd by lcading and authorilalivc pcrsona]ilics of both the Nalional and Islamic tcndcncics, both of which cncompassed their main strands. It is worth mentioning that these were the same groups LhaL existed in the Nalional Asscmbly between 1973-75. Thcn, they were termed as the religious EWloc and Lhc Pcoplc’s Rloc. Both had won their constituencies after campaigning for prograrnmcs that could bc refonnulaled as manifeslos. Indccd, boLh Plocs stood against the imposition or the State Security Law. When the govcmmenl failed to win allies, the Amir and the prime minister resorted to dissolving the parliarnent. The explicit and irnplicit demands of the petitions fonn an initial manifesto. These include the return of parliamentary life and public accountability, preserving B ahrain’s independence, the rescue of economy (to relieve unemployment, inflation, trade restrictions, etc.), end of corruption, respect of human rights, and inevitably popular-participation in the executive. However, Bahrain’s political map is characterised by several features [hat influence the current and forthcoming events. Here are some c)f them: 1. The small size of Bahrain as compared to its neighbours provide super-size Saudi Arabia to enforce a certain form of politics and govemance. The Saudis provide the political cover for the backward political system in the Gulf. Neverthclcss, this factor is not etemal. Nowadays, the Saudi system faces its most critical phases as the people of Arabia (especially from the rulers’ base of Najd) are openly staging their political actions. The Saudi economy is in the red, and can not continue buying loyalties by extra subsidies to a high standard of living. The Saudi budget has bought most of the Arab mod i a. London, the new capi tal of Arab journalism, witncsses the dominance of Saudi petrodollars. Ncwspapers, weeklies, monthlies, radio and TV are all elements of a massive Saudi media empire. This empire serves the Saudis by providing a propaganda tool and by implicitly and explicitly defending the Saudi political system. Thcsc media are engaged in what is termed “analysis-paralysis”. The Saudi oppositicon is thinking of establishing their counter media tools, including a possible TV station. Thc Saudi dominance on media may not, hence, be sustainable. The demise of the Saudi power is a matter of time, if anything. 2. F3ahrain’s rclations with botch the US and Britain arc intriguing factors. The US military bascs in Jufair, south or Bal rain and the old airport, provide the ruling family, Al-Khalifa, with a sense of external security. On the other hand, the internal security system is handled by a group of British officers, who implement merciless crackdowns on opposition. The ruling family has long generated the feeling that both the US and Britain are thcre to protect thcm against the Icgitimate demands of the Us ahraini people. The prcsenceof both the Ameri can military and British security officers will havc to adjust to new regional and global political environments. It is doubtful that the US would risk deploying its soldiers to kill Bahraini Citizens calling for thc return of democracy. At the same timc, British officials are distancing themselves from the likc of Ian Hendcrson. The latter is an embarrassing person to HM Governmcnt which dcnics seconding him to thcBahraini government. 3. The ruling family has forged a dubious relationship with a group of dominating businessmen. The basic understanding between the two is that as long as these businessmen allow the lion-sharcs of business returns to flow towards the ruling family, then the latter would provide frcc hand for them in generating profit without the need to go through the rigid bureaucracy. Most of these businessmen reserve certain percentages for commissions and profit-sharing with members of the fling family. However, while these businessmen are natural allies, increasingly, all other businessmen are outraged and eager to see the end of unfair trading practices. 4. Another section of the society that has provided a greater service for the ruling family is represented by a group self-styled dignitaries These are a collection of religious men and community elders who visit the palaces of the Amir, Heir Apparent and prime minister every week. During their visits, they gain special favours. These range from plots of land, gifts in the form of cash or cars, tickets for touring the world, positions for relatives, etc. The return for these unwarranted rewards come in the fomm of combating any social, religious or political activity that aim for change. This group may resort to traditional tactics such as inciting Sunni-Shia divide to break the resolve of political and social action. However, they are becoming so outdated that they are facing mounting criticism and scandalous revelations that is increasingly isolat ng them from the populace. 5. The human rights records of Bahrain are some of the worst in the region. All international organisations have full details of the oppressive campaigns and the inhumane treatment of political prisoners. This has resulted in the imposition of UN Human Rights monitoring between February 1992 and February 1993. This was lifted after the U S representative sponsored the ending of monitoring claiming that Bahrain had improved its records. Nonetheless, the Opposition has shown its capability to take the issue beyond the national boundaries. Having reached thus far, the opportunities are open for the Opposition to further its aims by expo
sing the repressive and dictatorial nature of the regime. 6. Unemployment is a problem that will not go away. Amongst Bahrainis, the rate is as high as 30%. Thesc young people are increasingly alienated are becoming fearless. They have staged several demonstrations in the past few months and have shown their determination. What makes the situation worse is the fact that members of the ruling family and their allied businessmen continue to flood the country with cheap labour from the Far East and the Sub-Indian continent. A confidential report submitted to the Cabinet speaks of foreigners joining the unemployed. These are the Free-Visa who are imported by agents and dumped in the job market in return for a perccntage-return from their wages when they gain employment. The report states that up to 25 % of the unemployed ( 12,500 out of 50,000 jobless) will be from these foreigners. Certainly, this is the back-firing of a non-responsible policy. What’s worse is that oil is running out in the year 2005* How could the ruling family attract foreign investment and tourism with a country liable for political instability. Tourists do not go to countries that may erupt politically. Foreign firms haveothersafcrand friendlierplaces to go. The government will be cornered more and more, while the Opposition drives its campaign to conclusions.

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